Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction needs mount: $486 billion needed over next decade
Post-war reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is projected to cost $486 billion over the next decade, up from $411 billion estimated a year ago, a UN-backed study published on Thursday has revealed.
The updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) – issued by the Government alongside the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations- covers damage incurred since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion on 24 February 2022 to the end of last December.
Housing is the highest need, or 17 per cent of the overall estimated costs, followed by transport, commerce and industry, agriculture, and energy. Social protection and livelihood support, as well as explosive hazard management, are pegged at under 10 per cent, respectively.
Across all sectors, the cost of debris clearance and management, as well as demolition where needed, is almost $11 billion.
Damage and Displacement
"Despite the ongoing full-scale war, the Ukrainian government, with the support of international partners, continues to implement a rapid recovery programme. The execution of the Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) allows us to approach this process more systematically,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in a joint press release.
Direct damage in Ukraine has now reached almost $152 billion, and is concentrated in Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska, Zaporizka, Khersonska, and Kyivska - the same regions that suffered the greatest damage as reported in the previous assessment.
The RDNA3 found that 10 per cent of housing stock across Ukraine has been damaged or destroyed, prolonging displacement of Ukrainians from their communities.
Furthermore, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and the hydropower plant last June has resulted in significant negative impacts on the environment and agriculture, while worsening the plight of people already struggling to access housing, water, food, and health services.
The Ukrainian authorities estimate that roughly $15 billion will be needed this year alone for immediate reconstruction and recovery priorities at both the national and community level.
Focus is particularly on supporting and mobilizing the private sector alongside restoration of housing, soft infrastructure and services, energy, and transport. Roughly $5.5 billion has already been secured so far from both Ukraine and international partners.
Invest in Ukraine’s people
Denise Brown, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine, underscored the need to invest in Ukraine’s people because the future of the country depends on them.
“The war is not over. The suffering is not over,” she said. “But communities in Ukraine are demonstrating significant courage and commitment in driving their own inclusive recovery processes and they need the continued support of their international partners.”
"Social services have been re-established; schools built with bunkers – we heard that 90 per cent of children are registered, not necessarily attending but registered for schools –; hospitals and clinics reconstructed; roads and bridges repaired; agricultural land and critical social infrastructure demined; and small businesses reopened, and many of those small ones are women owned. This will have to happen community by community," she emphasized.
The findings in the RDNA3 complement the Government’s Ukraine Plan and the European Union (EU) Ukraine Facility, both of which are forthcoming. These instruments lay out a reform and investment agenda for the next four years as Ukraine prepares to join the EU.
Since the last assessment in March 2023, the authorities, supported by partners, have met some of the most urgent needs, such as disbursing $1 billion for housing sector recovery and carrying out more than 2,000 kilometres of emergency repairs on motorways, highways, and other national roads.
Culture under attack
RDNA3 also detailed the war’s impact on Ukraine’s culture and tourism sectors. Damage is estimated at nearly $3.5 billion, up from $2.6 billion last year - a 40 per cent increase.
Nearly $9 billion will be needed for recovery over the next decade, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) said this week.
A total of 4,779 cultural and tourist assets in Ukraine have been reported as damaged, including buildings of heritage value; works of art, collections and cultural repositories; workshops for creative industries, and tourism facilities.
The Kharkiv region was the worst affected, accounting for a quarter of the damage, followed by Donetsk and Odessa.
This article has been adapted from a longer version appearing on UN News and the Resident Coordinator/Human Coordinator's remarks here. For more information about the UN's support in the Occupied Territory of Palestine, visit palestine.un.org.
